The best after the pandemic

In Norway, 90% of new cars are electric

The last plugless vehicle will probably be sold either in 2022 or 2023, well ahead of Norway’s 2025 informal target.

Norway, the world’s leading market in the electric vehicle transition, saw plugins take 91.2% share in November, up from 79.9% a year ago. Non-hybridized combustion vehicles saw a record low of under 5.1% share in November, with Petrol at just 2.3% share. The overall auto market saw 15,274 new registrations, up 24% over pre-pandemic seasonal norms, suggesting that folks are actively defecting from combustion vehicles to electrics at higher rates than the background replacement rate of the past. Prioritizing the Norwegian market, Tesla took the top 2 spots in November.

 

2021 has been the year when the inevitable electric vehicle transition has finally come to fruition in Norway. Apart from a possible slight seasonal dip in the coming January or February, plugins will remain firmly above 90% from now on, and BEVs alone are on track to reach 90% share by the end of 2022.

 

The last plugless vehicle will probably be sold either in 2022 or 2023, well ahead of Norway’s 2025 informal target. As noted above, the precise timing will depend on compelling plugins being made available in all the remaining niche segments they haven’t yet reached.

 

December has historically been the peak month of the year for plugin share, and 2021 will stay on trend. We should see a new record high of 94% to 96% plugin share in December.

 

Norway, following the global auto market trend, saw its overall auto sales (of all powertrains) peak in 2017 and — even prior to the pandemic — each year since has seen a notable decline.

 

Well, that was the case, until this year. Now that a “much better option” (and overall more affordable option) is available, Norway’s auto sales volumes are climbing again. Year-to-date, sales volumes are up by 28.9% over 2020, and up 18.8% from 2018 levels.

 

This may seem counterintuitive, and will be a discrete phase not lasting forever, but the reason is that folks who only bought new cars at modest intervals in the past are now accelerating the retirement (or reselling) of their old ICE vehicles and replacing them with much better, more reliable, more economical, and cleaner, plugin vehicles.